Scenarios, Inputs, Assumptions And Methodologies For Planning And Forecasting
In this section
In this section
- Interactive maps and dashboards
- NEM Electricity Demand Forecasts
- Forecasting Accuracy Reporting
- NEM Electricity Statement of Opportunities
- Scenarios, Inputs, Assumptions And Methodologies For Planning And Forecasting
- Integrated System Plan
- National Transmission Network Development Plan
- Victorian transmission network service provider role
- Independent regional planning reports
- Load forecasting in pre-dispatch and STPASA
- Solar and wind energy forecasting
- Transmission Connection Point Forecasting
- Generation information
- South Australian Advisory Functions
- Energy Adequacy Assessment Projection (EAAP)
- Value of Customer Reliability
- Demand Side Participation Information Guidelines
- Power System Frequency Risk Review
- Planning and network regulation
AEMO delivers a range of planning and forecasting publications to inform decision making including the Electricity Statement of Opportunities (ESOO), the Gas Statement of Opportunities (GSOO) and the Integrated System Plan (ISP).
AEMO strives to ensure its planning and forecasting publications are of highest quality, with data that is fit for purpose and industry-reviewed and processes that are transparent. To build confidence in the forecasts, and help decision makers understand the outcomes, AEMO consults on and publishes its scenarios, inputs, assumptions and methodologies. If necessary, confidential information is withheld from public release, but incorporated in the modelling conducted to deliver assessments that are as accurate as possible.
The documents contained in this page provide the collection of guidelines, methodologies, scenarios and inputs considered in AEMO’s Planning and Forecasting publications. The documents may change as AEMO releases new or updates existing methodologies, inputs, scenarios or assumptions.
Scenarios, Inputs and Assumptions
The use of scenario planning is an effective practice to manage investment and business risks when planning in a highly uncertain environment, particularly through disruptive transitions. Scenarios form a critical aspect of forecasting, providing the information needed to assess future risks, opportunities and development needs in the energy industry. It is vital that the dimensions of scenarios chosen cover the potential breadth of plausible futures impacting the energy sector and capture the key uncertainties and material drivers of these possible futures in a consistent way.
AEMO has landed on five scenarios, which have been developed following extensive consultation with industry, academia, and the business consumer community, to provide a suitably wide range of possible developments varying in two primary directions – the extent of decarbonisation by the energy industry, and the degree of decentralisation within the sector.
These documents contain descriptions and details of the scenarios, and associated inputs and assumptions to be applied in AEMO's Planning and Forecasting activities for 2019-20.
2019 Forecasting and Planning Scenarios, Inputs and Assumptions report
The scenarios, inputs and assumptions are described in this report, following engagement from consumers and industry through the Planning and Forecasting Consultation. This included feedback provided directly at workshops, one-on-one discussions, and through formal submissions.
2019 Input and Assumptions workbook
This spreadsheet contains key scenario data used as inputs in AEMO’s market models for 2019 Planning and Forecasting activities. This data reflects a starting point for modelling, which may be refined as the processes evolve.
2019 Input and Assumptions workbook (24.7 MB, xlsx)
Planning and Forecasting Methodologies and Guidelines
These reports and guidelines contain descriptions of the methodologies and processes applied in AEMO's demand and energy forecasting, market modelling, and power system planning.
Electricity Demand Forecasting Methodology Information Paper
This document contains descriptions of AEMO’s various forecasting methods for estimating future energy consumption across consumer segments and regions, as well as estimating Maximum Demand and Minimum Demand for various probability thresholds.
Market Modelling Methodology Report
This document contains descriptions of AEMO’s various methodologies for simulating integrated energy supply developments for the electricity and gas systems.
Market Modelling Methodology report (2.1 MB pdf)
2018 System strength requirements methodology
This document contains descriptions of the methodology AEMO uses to determine fault level nodes in each region, and calculation methods used to determine the minimum three phase fault levels to be maintained at these fault level nodes.
2018 System strength requirements methodology (5.3 MB, pdf)
2018 Inertia requirements methodology
This document contains descriptions of the methodology AEMO uses to define inertia sub-networks in the NEM, and the calculation methods used to determine the satisfactory and secure inertia levels required to be available in these inertia sub-networks.
2018 Inertia requirements methodology (2.9 MB, pdf)
Reliability Standard Implementation Guidelines (RSIG)
The RSIG sets out how AEMO implements the reliability standard, including the approach and assumptions to electricity demand, generation availability and reliability (including intermittent and energy-limited generation), treatment of extreme weather and network constraints.
RSIG Guidelines (560 KB, pdf)
Medium Term Projected Adequacy System Assessment (MT-PASA) Process Description
This document outlines the procedure used in administering the MT PASA, which assesses power system security and reliability under 10% Probability of Exceedance (POE) and 50% POE demand conditions based on generator availability and network capabilities.
MT PASA Process Description (925 KB, pdf)
Reliability Forecasting Methodology Paper
This document explains the key inputs and assumptions AEMO will use to determine whether a reliability gap exists in the context of the Retailer Reliability Obligation (RRO), and the methodology for determining the parameters of any reliability gap.
Reliability Forecasting Methodology Paper (510 KB, pdf)
Electricity Statement of Opportunities (ESOO) Methodology
The intent of this document is to explain the key supply inputs and methodologies involved in producing the ESOO outcomes in more detail.
ESOO Methodology (324 KB, pdf)
Planning and Forecasting Consultation Documentation
AEMO thanks the broad range of stakeholders from across the energy industry for their valuable contributions that helped inform the scenarios, inputs, assumptions and methodologies summarised on this page.
These documents contain information provided by AEMO at workshops and briefings during AEMO’s 2019 Planning and Forecasting Consultation on scenarios, inputs and assumptions.
- 2019 Planning and Forecasting Consultation Paper (2.2 MB, pdf)
- 2019 Planning and Forecasting Consultation Responses (658 KB, pdf)
Stakeholder workshop to address questions of clarification
19 February 2019
Briefing Workshop slides (516 KB, pdf)
Briefing webinar to summarise submissions received
3 April 2019
Briefing Webinar slides (1.5 MB, pdf)
Stakeholder workshop to explore scenarios and resolve issues
(In person at Boston Consulting Group’s offices, Sydney)
12 April 2019
Workshop pack (3.4 pdf)
Forecasting and Planning Scenarios Briefing
3 June 2019
Briefing workshop slides (3.2 MB, pdf)
Reference materials used to support the development of the inputs and assumptions.
CSIRO GenCost 2018
GHD, 2018 AEMO cost and technical parameter review
GHD, 2018 AEMO cost and technical parameter review (5.83 MB, pdf)
GHD, 2018 AEMO cost and technical parameter review databook (567 KB, xlsb)
Entura, 2018 Pumped Hydro cost modelling
Entura, 2018 Pumped Hydro cost modelling (1.0 MB, pdf)
Core Energy, 2019 Wholesale Gas Price Outlook
Core Energy, 2019 wholesale gas price outlook report (2.2 MB, pdf)
Core Energy, 2019 wholesale gas price outlook databook (5.8 MB, xlsx)
Deloitte Access Economics, 2019 AEMO Long term economic scenario forecasts
CSIRO, 2019 Projections for Small Scale Embedded Technologies Report
Energeia, Distributed Energy Resources and Electric Vehicle Forecasts Report
Strategy Policy Research, 2019 Energy Efficiency Forecasts
Wood Mackenzie, 2019 Coal Cost Projections
Wood Mackenzie, 2019 Coal cost projections databook (94 KB, xlsx)
Planning and Forecasting Consultation Submissions
- AGL Energy Limited (127 KB, pdf)
- Ausnet Services (516 KB, pdf)
- Australian Energy Council (AEC) (92 KB, pdf)
- Australian Energy Regulator (AER) (145 KB, pdf)
- Clean Energy Council (CEC) (248 KB, pdf)
- Energy Australia (EA) (222 KB, pdf)
- Energy Network Australia (ENA) (1.0 KB, pdf)
- Energy Network Australia (ENA) – Social Discount Rate analysis (Houston Kemp Economist) (186 KB, pdf)
- ENGIE (854 KB, docx)
- Ergon Energy Retail (53 KB, docx)
- ERM Power Limited (260 KB, pdf)
- Ernst & Young (294 KB, pdf)
- Hydro Tasmania (3.9 MB, pdf)
- Investor Group on Climate Change (482 KB, pdf)
- Infigen Energy Limited (524 KB, pdf)
- Meridian Energy (90 KB, pdf)
- Origin (182 KB, pdf)
- Snowy Hydro Ltd (382 KB, pdf)
- Stanwell Corporation Ltd (733 KB, pdf)
- Tasmanian Networks Pty Ltd (905 KB, pdf)
- Tesla Motors Australia Pty Ltd (160 KB, pdf)
- TransGrid (4.4 MB, pdf)
- University of Melbourne (351 KB, pdf)
- Walcha Energy (1.2 MB, pdf)
- WSP Australia Pty Ltd (30 KB, pdf)
Should you have any questions about any information contained on this page, or would like to share any evidence or comments that could help us for the 2019-20 Forecasting and Planning publications, please email the team: firstname.lastname@example.org.